World Cup 2026 Round 2
Every year, after the second round of games complete, I like to work out all the remaining permutations for each group to see what each team need to do to win the group, secure a second place playoff seed, and this year, secure a reasonable chance at a third play playoff seed. That is because initially there are 312 permutations, not counting handling tie breakers. The best I can do is the general analysis found here. After round 1, the number of permutations reduces to 38 (not counting tie breakers), still to many for exhaustive analysis, but enough to call out what certain teams need to do. After round 3, however, the number of permutations reduces to 9, with occasional need to examine tie breakers. This means I can exhaustively examine all the cases for each team in the group.
As of 3:00 p.m. Jun 25 PDT, The minimum points a 3rd place team needs to qualify is 3 points. Currently a 4 point 3rd place team with a -1 or better goal qualifies.
As of 7:00 p.m. Jun 26 PDT, any 3rd place team with 4 points qualifies. So 9-4 points qualify, 2-0 points is eliminated.
As of 9:00 p.m. Jun 27 PDT, The group stage is over only one 3 point 3rd place team qualified (Senegal). All 9-4 points qualify, and all 2-0 points were eliminated. Final results are in bold. You can see the knockout round chart at the FIFA website here
Each group by group analysis include 1) a current standing list with all the current tie breaker values, 2) an executive summary of what each team needs to do to reach their maximal goal. 3) exhaustive list of the results based on the various possibilities of each game. I’ll include the exectutive summary here and a link the the full group analysis here as teams complete their game 2.
Group A
Mexico has already won the division, no matter what else happens.
Mexico.
Mexico wins the group.
South Korea
South Korea advances as #2 on a win.
South Korea advances as #2 on a tie, and a Czechia loss or tie
South Korea
maydid not advance on a loss and a Czechia loss or tieSouth Korea is eliminated on a loss and a Czechia win..
Czechia
Czechia advances on a win and a South Korea loss.
Czechia advances on a 2 or more goal win and a South Korea tie.
Czechia likely advances on a win and a South Korea win.
Czechia is eliminated on a loss or tie.
South Africa
South Aftrica advances on a win and a Czechia loss or tie.
South Africa likely advances on a win and a Czechia win.
South Africa is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group B
For all intents and purposes, Canada and Switzerland are battling for the #1 and #2 seeds and Bosnia and Qatar are battling for the #3 seed and a chance to get into the playoffs.
Canada.
Canada wins the group on a win or tie.
Canada advances as a second place team on a loss and a Qatari win or tie or a Bosnian win with less than 5 goals.
Canada still probably advances as a 4 point 3rd place team (Canada loss with a massive Bosnia win) with a large positive goal differential.
Switzerland
Switzerland wins the group on a win.
Switzerland advances a second place team on a tie, or a loss and either a Bosnian win or a Qatari win with less than 4 goals
Switzerland still likely advances as a 4 pt 3rd place team (Switzerland loss and a massive Qatar win) with a positive goal differential.
Bosnia
Bosnia possibly advances on a win as a 3rd place 4 point team and a slightly negative goal differential.
Bosnia is likely eliminated on a tie.
Bosnia is eliminated on a loss.
Qatar
Qatar possibly advances on a win as a 3rd place 4 point team and a large negative goal differential.
Qatar is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group C
Brazil and Morocco are basically fighting for first and second. Even in the rare chance they fall to 3rd, they should qualify with 4 pts and a positive goal differential. Scotland wants to improve it’s current 3 point 3rd place finish. Haiti is eliminated.
Brazil.
Brazil wins the group with a win and either a Morocco tie or loss or Morocco doesn’t win by enough goals
Brazil wins the group on tie and a Morocco tie or loss.
Brazil advances on a win or tie.
Brazil likely advances as a 4 point 3rd place on a loss.
Morocco
Morocco wins the group with a win and a Brazil loss or tie or a win by enough goals.
Morocco advances on a win or tie.
Morocco likely advances as a 4 point 3rd place on a loss.
Scotland
Scotland wins the group with a win and a Morocco tie or loss.
Scotland advances on a win.
Scotland likely advances on a tie, either 2nd place or 4 point 3rd place.
Scotland
maydid not advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Haiti
Haiti is eliminated.
Group D
USA wins the group, Turkey is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.
USA.
USA wins the group.
Australia
Australia advances on a win or tie.
Australia may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Paraguay
Paraguay advances on a win
Paraguay likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3rd place team
Paraguay may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Turkey
Turkey is eliminated.
Group E
Germany wins the division. Ivory Coast can still be eliminated.
Germany
Germany wins the division
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast advances in second place with a win or tie
Ivory Cost probably advances with a loss and an Ecuador loss or tie.
Ivory Coast is eliminated on a loss and and Ecuador win.
Ecuador
Ecuador likely advances on a win.
Ecuador (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.
Curacao
Curacao likely advances on a win.
Curacao is (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group F
Tunisia is eliminated. All the rest can win the group on a win and some help.
Netherlands
Netherlands wins the group on a win and a Japan loss or tie or better goal differential than Japan.
Netherlands advances on a win or tie.
Netherlands likely advances on a loss.
Japan
Japan wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie or better goal differential than Netherlands.
Japan advances on a win or tie.
Japan likely advances on a loss.
Sweden
Sweden wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie.
Sweden advances on a win.
Sweden likely advances on a tie.
Sweden may advance on a loss.
Tunisia
Tunisia is eliminated.
Group G
Egypt basically wins the group on a win or tie. Iran and Belgium need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. New Zealand needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Egypt
Egypt wins the group on a win.
Egypt wins the group on a tie and a Belgium loss or tie or a better goal differential than Belgium (Egypt +2).
Egypt always advances on a tie.
Egypt advances as a second place team on a loss and a New Zealand win or tie.
Egypt still probably advances as a 4 point 3rd place team even with a loss and a Belgium win.
Iran
Iran wins the group on a win and a Belgium loss or tie or Belgium or a better goal differential than Belgium.
Iran advances on a win.
Iran
maydid not advance on a tieIran is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
Belgium
Belgium wins the group on a win and either a Egypt loss and a better goal differential than Iran or a Egypt tie and a better goal differential than 2.
Belgium advances on a win.
Belgium probably advances on a tie.
Belgium is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
New Zealand
New Zealand probably advances on a win.
New Zealand is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group H
Spain basically wins the group on a win or tie. Uruguay and Cape Verde need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. Saudi Arabia needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Spain
Spain wins the group on a win.
Spain wins the group on a tie and a Cape Verde loss or tie or a better goal differential than Cape Verde (Spain +4).
Spain always advances on a tie.
Spain advances as a second place team on a loss and a Saudi Arabia win or tie.
Spain still probably advances as a 4 point 3rd place team even with a loss and a Cape Verde win.
Uruguay
Uruguay wins the group on a win and a Cape Verde loss or tie or Cape Verde or a better goal differential than Cape Verde.
Uruguay advances on a win.
Uruguay probably advances on a tie
Uruguay is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
Cape Verde
Cape Verde wins the group on a win and a Spain loss and a better goal differential than Uruguay.
Cape Verde advances on a win Spain loss or tie.
Cape Verde probably advances on a tie.
Cape Verde is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia probably advances on a win.
Saudi Arabia is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group I
France and Norway both advance, they play for #1 and #2. Senegal and Iraq play for a chance to advance. Both are eliminated on a loss or tie
France.
France wins the group on a win or tie.
France advances as a second place team on a loss
Norway
Norway wins the group on a win.
Norway advances a second place team on a loss or tie.
Senegal
Senegal possibly advances on a win as a 3rd place 3 point team and a slightly
negativepositive goal differential.Senegal is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Iraq
Iraq possibly advances on a win as a 3rd place 3 point team and a large negative goal differential.
Iraq is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Group J
Argentina wins the group, Jordan is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.
Argentina.
Argentina wins the group.
Austria
Austria advances on a win or tie.
Austria cannot advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Algeria
Algeria advances on a win
Algeria likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3rd place team.
Algeria cannot advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Jordan
Jordan is eliminated.
Group K
Despite the mathematical possibility of DR Congo taking the #2 position from Portugal, the goal differential causes this scenario extremely unlikely… thus its Columbia and Portugal fighting for #1 and #2 and DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting for #3 and #4.
Columbia
Columbia wins the group on a win or tie.
Columbia advances on a loss as a #2 seed.
Portugal
Portugal wins the group on a win
Portugal advances on a tie.
Portugal very likely advances on a loss.
DR Congo
DR Congo likely advances on a win as a 4 point 3rd place team.
DR Congo is eliminated on a tie or loss.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan probably advances on a win as a 4 point 3rd place team.
Uzbekistan is eliminated on a tie or loss.
Group L
England and Ghana are battling for #1 and #2, but Croatia and sneek into either position with a win and help. Panama is Eliminated
England
England wins the group on a win and a Ghana loss or tie or better goal diff than Ghana.
England wins the group on a tie and a Ghana loss or tie.
England advances on a win or tie.
England advances on a loss (4 point 3rd place team)
Ghana
Ghana wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie or better goal diff than England.
Ghana advances on a win or tie
Ghana advances on a loss (4 point 3rd place team)
Croatia
Croatia wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie.
Croatia advances on a win.
Croatia likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3rd place team.
Croatian may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3rd place team.
Panama
Panama is eliminated.
Third place team qualifying:
Last four are eliminated at the end. If there are 4 teams below any team, that team advances to the finals. Format: name(point, goal diff, goals scored, fair play points) group [ ordered by tie breakers ]
Groups left to finish: 0
DR Congo (4, +1, 4, -5) K
Sweden (4, 0, 7, -6) F
Ghana (4, 0, 4, -3) L
Ecuador (4, 0, 2, -5) E
Bosnia (4, -1, 5, -6) B
Algeria (4, -2, 5, -1) D
Paraguay (4, -2, 2, -2) D
Senegal (3, +2, 8, -2) I <==== advance, this line and above
Iran (3, 0, 3, -6) G <==== eliminated, this line and below
South Korea (3, -1, 2, -3) A
Scotland (3, -3, 1, -3) C
Uruguay (2, -1, 3, -5) H
With 3 more groups remaining here is what the last 3 3rd place teams not yet qualified need to make it into the knockout round:
Iran:any ofCroatia loss to Ghana.DR Conglo loss (by less than 7 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.Algeria loss to Austria or Austria loss to Algeria (no tie).
South Korea:any two ofCroatia loss to Ghana.DR Conglo loss (by less than 6 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.- Algeria loss to Austria or Austria loss to Algeria by 2 or more goals (no tie).
Scotland:all ofCroatia loss to Ghana by 3 or more goals.DR Conglo loss (by less than 4 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.Algeria loss to Austria by 2 or more goals or Austria loss to Algeria by 4 or more goals (no tie).
The last 3 groups were not kind to the remaining 3 win teams. Only Senegal gets through. All the rest are eliminated.
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