World Cup 2026 Group K Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group K Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

          pts ΔG GF Sport
Columbia   6  +3  4  -3
Portugal   4  +5  6  -4
Dr Congo   1  -1  1  -2
Uzbekistan 0  -7  1  -2

Summary

• Despite the mathematical possibility of DR Congo taking the #2 position from Portugal, the goal differential causes this scenario extremely unlikely… thus its Columbia and Portugal fighting for #1 and #2 and DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting for #3 and #4.

• Columbia

  • Columbia wins the group on a win or tie.

  • Columbia advances on a loss as a #2 seed.

• Portugal

  • Portugal wins the group on a win

  • Portugal very likely advances on a loss.

• DR Congo

  • DR Congo likely advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • DR Congo is eliminated on a tie or loss.

• Uzbekistan

  • Uzbekistan probably advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Uzbekistan is eliminated on a tie or loss.

Complete breakdown:

Columbia beats Portugal:
	Columbia #1
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff < 6
			Portugal #2
			DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff = 6
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals < 5
				Portugal #2
				DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals = 5
				DR Congo has less than 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					DR Congo #2
					Portugal #3 (4 pts)
				DR Congo has exactly 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					lots choose between DR Congo and Portugal for #2 and #3 (4 pts)
				DR Congo has more than 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					Portugal #2
					DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals > 5
				DR Congo #2
				Portugal #3 (4 pts)
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff < 6
				DR Congo #2
				Portugal #3 (4 pts)
			Belgium #1
			Egypt #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	Belgium ties New Zealand:
		Egypt #1
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1
			Iran #2
			Belgium #3 (3pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1
			Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Iran #2
				Belgium #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				lots choose between Iran and Belgium  for #2 and #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	New Zealand beats Belgium:
		Egypt #1
		New Zealand #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium #4 is eliminated.
		
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		Portugal #2
		DR Congo #3 (2pt – probably eliminated)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Portugal #2
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.
Columbia ties Portugal:
	Columbia #1
	Portugal #2
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Dr Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		DR Congo #3 (2 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.
Portugal beats Columbia
	Portugal #1
	Columbia #2
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Dr Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		DR Congo #3 (2 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.