World Cup 2026 Group L Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group L Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

        pts ΔG GF Sport
England  4  +2  4  -1
Ghana    4  +1  3  -1
Croatia  3  -1  1  -2
Panama   1  -2  0  -3

Summary

• England and Ghana are battling for #1 and #2, but Croatia and sneek into either position with a win and help. Panama is Eliminated

• England

  • England wins the group on a win and a Ghana loss or tie or better goal diff than Ghana.

  • England wins the group on a tie and a Ghana loss or tie.

  • England advances on a win or tie.

  • England advances on a loss (4 point 3^rd place team)

• Ghana

  • Ghana wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie or better goal diff than England.

  • Ghana advances on a win or tie

  • Ghana advances on a loss (4 point 3^rd place team)

• Croatia

  • Croatia wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie.

  • Croatia advances on a win.

  • Croatia likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Croatian may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Panama

  • Panama is eliminated.

Complete breakdown:

Englang beats Panama:
	Ghana beats Croatia:
		England-Panama goal diff - Ghana-Croatia goal diff > 1
			England #1
			Ghana #2
		England-Panama goal diff - Ghana-Croatia goal diff = 1
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals < 1
				England #1
				Ghana #2
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals = 1
				England has fewer fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					England #1
					Ghana #2
				England has the same fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					lots choose between England and Ghana for #1 and #2
				England has more fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					Ghana #1
					England #2
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals > 1
				Ghana #1
				England #2
		England-Panama goal diff - Ghana-Croatia goal diff < 1
			Ghana #1
			England #2
		Croatia #3 (3 pts)
	Ghana ties Croatia
		England #1
		Ghana #2
		Croatia #3 (4 pts)
	Croatia beats Ghana:
		England #1
		Croatia #2
		Ghana #3 (4 pts)
	Panama #4 is eliminated
England ties Panama:
	Ghana beats Croatia:
		Ghana #1
		England #2
		Croatia #3 (3 pts)
	Ghana ties Croatia:
		England #1
		Ghana #2
		Croatia #3 (4 pts)
	Croatia beats Ghana:
		Croatia #1
		England #2
		Ghana #3 (4 pts)
	Panama #4 is eliminated
Panama beats England:
	Ghana beats Croatia
		Ghana #1
		England #2
		Croatia #3 (3 pts)
	Ghana ties Panama
		Ghana #1
		Panama-England goal diff < 3
			England #2
			Croatia #3(4 pts)
		Panama-England goal diff = 3
			England game 3 goals – Croatia game 3 goals < 3
				England #2
				Croatia #3 (4pts)
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals = 3
				England has fewer than 1 more fair play points than Croatia in game 3
					England #2
					Croatia #3 (4pts)
				England has exactly 1 more fair play points than Croatia in game 3
				England has greater than 1 more fair play points than Croatia in game 3
					Croatia #2
					England #3 (4pts)
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals > 3
				Croatia #2
				England #3 (4pts)
		Panama-England goal diff > 3
			Croatia #2
			England #3 (4pts)
	Croatia beats Ghana
		Croatia #1
		Panama-England goal diff - Croatia-Ghana goal diff > 1
			England #2
			Ghana #3 (4 pts)
		Panama-England goal diff - Croatia-Ghana goal diff = 1
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals < 1
				England #2
				Ghana #3 (4 pts)
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals = 1
				England has fewer fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					England #2
					Ghana #3 (4pts)
				England has the same fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					lots choose between England and Ghana for #1 and #2
				England has more fair play points than Ghana in game 3
					Ghana #2
					England #3 (4 pts)
			Ghana game 3 goals – England game 3 goals > 1
				Ghana #2
				England #3 (4 pts)
		Panama-England goal diff - Croatia-Ghana goal diff < 1
			Ghana #2
			England #3 (4 pts)
	Panama #4 is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group K Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group K Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

          pts ΔG GF Sport
Columbia   6  +3  4  -3
Portugal   4  +5  6  -4
Dr Congo   1  -1  1  -2
Uzbekistan 0  -7  1  -2

Summary

• Despite the mathematical possibility of DR Congo taking the #2 position from Portugal, the goal differential causes this scenario extremely unlikely… thus its Columbia and Portugal fighting for #1 and #2 and DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting for #3 and #4.

• Columbia

  • Columbia wins the group on a win or tie.

  • Columbia advances on a loss as a #2 seed.

• Portugal

  • Portugal wins the group on a win

  • Portugal very likely advances on a loss.

• DR Congo

  • DR Congo likely advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • DR Congo is eliminated on a tie or loss.

• Uzbekistan

  • Uzbekistan probably advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Uzbekistan is eliminated on a tie or loss.

Complete breakdown:

Columbia beats Portugal:
	Columbia #1
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff < 6
			Portugal #2
			DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff = 6
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals < 5
				Portugal #2
				DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals = 5
				DR Congo has less than 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					DR Congo #2
					Portugal #3 (4 pts)
				DR Congo has exactly 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					lots choose between DR Congo and Portugal for #2 and #3 (4 pts)
				DR Congo has more than 2 more fair play points than Portugal in game 3
					Portugal #2
					DR Congo #3 (4 pts)
			DR Congo game 3 goals – Portugal game 3 goals > 5
				DR Congo #2
				Portugal #3 (4 pts)
		Columbia-Portugal goal diff + DR Congo-Uzbekistan goal diff < 6
				DR Congo #2
				Portugal #3 (4 pts)
			Belgium #1
			Egypt #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	Belgium ties New Zealand:
		Egypt #1
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1
			Iran #2
			Belgium #3 (3pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1
			Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Iran #2
				Belgium #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				lots choose between Iran and Belgium  for #2 and #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	New Zealand beats Belgium:
		Egypt #1
		New Zealand #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium #4 is eliminated.
		
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		Portugal #2
		DR Congo #3 (2pt – probably eliminated)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Portugal #2
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.
Columbia ties Portugal:
	Columbia #1
	Portugal #2
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Dr Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		DR Congo #3 (2 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.
Portugal beats Columbia
	Portugal #1
	Columbia #2
	DR Congo beats Uzbekistan:
		Dr Congo #3 (4 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	DR Congo ties Uzbekistan:
		DR Congo #3 (2 pts)
		Uzbekistan #4 is eliminated.
	Uzbekistan beats DR Congo:
		Uzbekistan #3 (3 pts)
		DR Congo #4 is eliminated.

World Cup 2026 Group J Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group J Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

          pts  ΔG GF Sport
Argentina  6  +5  5  -2
Austria    3   0  3  -3
Algeria    3  -2  2  -1
Jordan     0  -3  2  -1

Summary

• Argentina wins the group, Jordan is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3^rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.

• Argentina.

  • Argentina wins the group.

• Austria

  • Austria advances on a win or tie.

  • Austria may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Algeria

  • Algeria advances on a win

  • Algeria likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team

  • Algeria may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Jordan

  • Jordan is eliminated

Complete breakdown:

Argentina beats Jordan or Argentina ties Jordan or Jordan beats Argentina:
	Argentina #1
	Austria beats Algeria:
		Austria #2
		Algeria #3 (3 pts)
	Austria ties Algeria:
		Austria #2
		Algeria #3 (4 pts)
	Algeria beats Austria:
		Algeria #2
		Austria #3 (3 pts)
	Jordan #4 is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group I Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group I Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

          pts ΔG GF Sport
France     6  +5  6   0
Norway     6  +4  7   0
Senegal    0  -3  3   0
Iraq       0  -6  1  -2

Summary

• France and Norway both advance, they play for #1 and #2. Senegal and Iraq play for a chance to advance. Both are eliminated on a loss or tie

• France.

  • France wins the group on a win or tie.

  • France advances as a second place team on a loss

• Norway

  • Norway wins the group on a win.

  • Norway advances a second place team on a loss or tie.

• Senegal

  • Senegal possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 3 point team and a slightly negative goal differential.

  • Senegal is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Iraq

  • Iraq possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 3 point team and a large negative goal differential.

  • Iraq is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

France beats or ties Norway:
	France #1
	Norway #2
Norway beats France:
	Norway #1
	France #2
Senegal beats Iraq:
	Senegal #3 (3 pts)
	Iraq #4 is eliminated.
Senegal ties Iraq:
	Senegal #3 (1 pt – is eliminated)
	Iraq #4 is eliminated
Iraq beats Senegal:
	Iraq #3 (3 pts)
	Senegal $4 is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group H Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group H Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

            pts ΔG GF Sport
Spain        4  +4  4  -1
Uruguay      2   0  3  -3
Cape Verde   2   0  2  -3
Saudi Arabia 1  -4  1  -2

Summary

• Spain basically wins the group on a win or tie. Uruguay and Cape Verde need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. Saudi Arabia needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Spain

  • Spain wins the group on a win.

  • Spain wins the group on a tie and a Cape Verde loss or tie or a better goal differential than Cape Verde (Spain +4).

  • Spain always advances on a tie.

  • Spain advances as a second place team on a loss and a Saudi Arabia win or tie.

  • Spain still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team even with a loss and a Cape Verde win.

• Uruguay

  • Uruguay wins the group on a win and a Cape Verde loss or tie or Cape Verde or a better goal differential than Cape Verde.

  • Uruguay advances on a win.

  • Uruguay probably advances on a tie

  • Uruguay is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Cape Verde

  • Cape Verde wins the group on a win and a Spain loss and a better goal differential than Uruguay.

  • Cape Verde advances on a win Spain loss or tie.

  • Cape Verde probably advances on a tie.

  • Cape Verde is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Saudi Arabia

  • Saudi Arabia probably advances on a win.

  • Saudi Arabia is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

Spain beats Uruguay:
	Spain #1
	Cape Verde beats Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde ties Saudi Arabia:
		Cape Verde #2
		Uruguay #3 (2pt – probably eliminated)
		Saudi Arabia #4 is eliminated
	Saudi Arabia beats Cape Verde:
		Saudi Arabia #2
		Uruguay and Cape Verde #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated) and #4 (eliminated) depending on tie breakers (but both positions is an elimination position.
Spain Ties Uruguay:
	Cape Verde beats Saudi Arabia:
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff - Spain-Uruguay goal diff < 4
			Spain #1
			Cape Verde #2
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff - Spain-Uruguay goal diff = 4
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Spain game 3 goals < 2
				Spain #1
				Cape Verde #2
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Spain game 3 goals = 2
				Spain has less than 2 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					Spain #1
					Cape Verde #2
				Spain has exactly 2 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					lots choose between Spain and Cape Verde  for #1 and #2
				Spain has more than 2 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					Cape Verde #1
					Spain #2
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Spain game 3 goals > 2
				Cape Verde #1
				Spain #2
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff - Spain-Uruguay goal diff > 4
			Cape Verde #1
			Spain #2
		Uruguay #3 (3 pts)
		Saudi Arabia #4 is eliminated
	Cape Verde ties Saudi Arabia:
		Spain #1
		Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals < 1
			Uruguay #2
			Cape Verde #3 (3pts)
		Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals = 1
			Uruguay has less than 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
				Uruguay #2
				Cape Verde #3 (3 pts)
			Uruguay has exactly 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
				lots choose between Uruguay and Cape Verde  for #2 and #3 (3 pts)
			Uruguay has more than 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
				Cape Verde #2
				Uruguay #3 (3 pts)
		Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals > 1
				Cape Verde #2
				Uruguay #3 (3pts)
		Saudi Arabia #4 is eliminated
	Saudi Arabia beats Cape Verde:
		Spain #1
		Saudi Arabia #2
		Uruguay #3 (3 pts)
		Cape Verde #4 is eliminated.
Uruguay beats Spain:
	Cape Verde beats Saudi Arabia
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff < Uruguay – Spain goal diff
			Uruguay #1
			Cape Verde #2
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff = Uruguay – Spain goal diff
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals < 1
				Uruguay #1
				Cape Verde #2
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals = 1
				Uruguay has less than 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					Uruguay #1
					Cape Verde #2
				Uruguay has exactly 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					lots choose between Uruguay and Cape Verde  for #1 and #2
				Uruguay has more than 1 more fair play points than Cape Verde in game 3
					Cape Verde #1
					Uruguay #2
			Cape Verde game 3 goals – Uruguay game 3 goals > 1
				Cape Verde #1
				Uruguay #2
		Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia goal diff > Uruguay – Spain goal diff
				Cape Verde #1
				Uruguay #2
		Spain #3 (4 pts)
		Saudi Arabia #4 is eliminated
	Cape Verde ties Saudi Arabia:
		Uruguay #1
		Spain #2
		Cape Verde #3 (3 pts)
		Saudi Arabia #4 is eliminated
	Saudi Arabia beats Cape Verde:
		Uruguay #1
		Spain #2
		Saudi Arabia #3 (4 pts)
		Cape Verde #4 is eliminated.

World Cup 2026 Group G Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group G Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

           pts ΔG GF Sport
Egypt       4  +2  4  -3
Iran        2   0  2  -2
Belgium     2   0  1  -7
New Zealand 1  -2  3  -2

Summary

• Egypt basically wins the group on a win or tie. Iran and Belgium need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. New Zealand needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Egypt

  • Egypt wins the group on a win.

  • Egypt wins the group on a tie and a Belgium loss or tie or a better goal differential than Belgium (Egypt +2).

  • Egypt always advances on a tie.

  • Egypt advances as a second place team on a loss and a New Zealand win or tie.

  • Egypt still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team even with a loss and a Belgium win.

• Iran

  • Iran wins the group on a win and a Belgium loss or tie or Belgium or a better goal differential than Belgium.

  • Iran advances on a win.

  • Iran probably advances on a tie

  • Iran is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Belgium

  • Belgium wins the group on a win and a Egypt loss and a better goal differential than Iran.

  • Belgium advances on a win Egypt loss or tie.

  • Belgium probably advances on a tie.

  • Belgium is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• New Zealand

  • New Zealand probably advances on a win.

  • New Zealand is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

Egypt beats Iran:
	Egypt #1
	Belgium beats New Zealand, Belgium ties New Zealand:
		Belgium #2
		Iran #3 (2pt – probably eliminated)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	New Zealand beats Belgium:
		New Zealand #2
		Iran and Belgium #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated) and #4 (eliminated) depending on tie breakers (but both positions is an elimination position.
Egypt Ties Iran:
	Belgium beats New Zealand:
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff < 2
			Egypt #1
			Belgium #2
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff = 2
			Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals < 3
				Egypt #1
				Belgium #2
			Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals = 3
				Egypt has less than 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					Egypt #1
					Belgium #2
				Egypt has exactly 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					lots choose between Egypt and Belgium  for #1 and #2
				Egypt has more than 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					Belgium #1
					Egypt #2
			Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals > 3
				Belgium #1
				Egypt #2
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff > 2
			Belgium #1
			Egypt #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	Belgium ties New Zealand:
		Egypt #1
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1
			Iran #2
			Belgium #3 (3pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1
			Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Iran #2
				Belgium #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				lots choose between Iran and Belgium  for #2 and #3 (3 pts)
			Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1
				Belgium #2
				Iran #3 (3pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	New Zealand beats Belgium:
		Egypt #1
		New Zealand #2
		Iran #3 (3 pts)
		Belgium #4 is eliminated.
Iran beats Egypt:
	Belgium beats New Zealand
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff < Iran – Egypt goal diff
			Iran #1
			Belgium #2
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff = Iran – Egypt goal diff
			Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1
				Iran #1
				Belgium #2
			Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1
				Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					Iran #1
					Belgium #2
				Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					lots choose between Iran and Belgium  for #1 and #2
				Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3
					Belgium #1
					Iran #2
			Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1
				Belgium #1
				Iran #2
		Belgium-New Zealand goal diff > Iran – Egypt goal diff
				Belgium #1
				Iran #2
		Egypt #3 (4 pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	Belgium ties New Zealand:
		Iran #1
		Egypt #2
		Belgium #3 (3 pts)
		New Zealand #4 is eliminated
	New Zealand beats Belgium:
		Iran #1
		Egypt #2
		New Zealand #3 (4 pts)
		New Zealand-Belgium goal diff - Iran–Egypt goal diff = 4
		Belgium #4 is eliminated.

World Cup 2026 Group F Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group F Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

           pts ΔG GF Sport
Netherlands 4  +4  7  -3
Japan       4  +4  6   0
Sweden      3   0  6  -3
Tunisia     0  -8  1   1

Summary

• Tunisia is eliminated. All the rest can win the group on a win and some help.

• Netherlands

  • Netherlands wins the group on a win and a Japan loss or tie or better goal differential than Japan.

  • Netherlands advances on a win or tie.

  • Netherlands likely advances on a loss.

• Japan

  • Japan wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie or better goal differential than Netherlands.

  • Japan advances on a win or tie.

  • Japan likely advances on a loss.

• Sweden

  • Sweden wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie.

  • Sweden advances on a win.

  • Sweden likely advances on a tie.

  • Sweden may advance on a loss.

• Tunisia

  • Tunisia is eliminated.

Complete breakdown:

Netherlands beats Tunisia:
	Japan beats Sweden:
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff > Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff = Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
				Netherlands #1
				Japan #2
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					Japan #1
					Netherlands #2
				Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #1 and #2
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Netherlands #1
				Japan #2
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
				Japan #1
				Netherlands #2
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff < Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Japan #1
			Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden
		Netherlands #1
		Japan #2
		Sweden #3 (4pts)
	Sweden beats Japan
		Netherlands #1
		Sweden #2
		Japan #3 (4 pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.
Netherlands ties Tunisia:
	Japan beats Sweden
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
			Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Japan #1
				Netherlands #2
			Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #1 and #2
			Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
			Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (4pts)
	Sweden beats Japan
		Sweden #1
		Netherlands #2
		Japan #3 (4 pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.
Tunisia beats Netherlands:
	Japan beats Sweden
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden:
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (4 pts)
	Sweden beats Japan:
		Sweden #1
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff > Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands #2
			Japan #3 (4pts)
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff = Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
				Netherlands #2
				Japan #3 (4 pts)
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					Japan #2
					Netherlands #3 (4 pts)
				Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #2 and #3 (4 pts)
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Netherlands #2
				Japan #3 (4 pts)
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
				Japan #2
				Netherlands #3 (4pts)
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff < Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Japan #2
			Netherlands #3 (4pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.

World Cup 2026 Group E Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group E Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

           pts ΔG GF Sport
Germany     6  +7  9   0
Ivory Coast 3   0  2  -3
Ecuador     1  -1  0  -2
Curacao     1  -6  1  -5

Summary

• Germany wins the division. Ivory Coast can still be eliminated.

• Germany

  • Germany wins the division

• Ivory Coast

  • Ivory Coast advances in second place with a win or tie

  • Ivory Cost probably advances with a loss and an Ecuador loss or tie.

  • Ivory Coast is eliminated on a loss and and Ecuador win.

• Ecuador

  • Ecuador likely advances on a win.

  • Ecuador is (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Curacao

  • Curacao likely advances on a win.

  • Curacao is (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

Germany beats Ecuador:
	Germany #1
	Ivory Coast beats Curacao:
		Ivory Coast #2
		Germany-Ecuador goal diff – Ivory Coast-Curacao goal diff < 5
			Ecuador #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
			Curacao #4 is eliminated
		Germany-Ecuador goal diff – Ivory Coast-Curacao goal diff = 5
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals > 1
				Ecuador #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
				Curacao is eliminated
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals = 1
				Ecuador has less than 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					Ecuador #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
					Curacao #4 is eliminated
				Ecuador has exactly 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					lots choose between Ecuador and Curacao  for #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated) and #4 is eliminated
				Ecuador has more than 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					Curacao #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
					Ecuador #4 is eliminated
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals < 1
				Curacao #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
				Ecuador is eliminated
		Germany-Ecuador goal diff – Ivory Coast-Curacao goal diff < 5
			Curacao #3 (1 pt – probably eliminated)
			Ecuador #4 is eliminated
	Ivory Coast ties Curacao:
		Ivory Coast#2
		Curacao #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		Ecuador #4 is eliminated
	Curacao beats Ivory Coast:
		Curacao #2
		Ivory Coast #3 (3 pts)
		Ecuador #4 is eliminated
Germany ties Ecuador:
	Germany #1
	Ivory Coast beats Curacao:
		Ivory Coast #2
		Ecuador #3 (2 pt -probably eliminated)
		Curacao #4 is eliminated
	Ivory Coast ties Curacao:
		Ivory Coast #2
		Ecuador #3 (2 pts -probably eliminated)
		Curacao #4 is eliminated
	Curacao beats Ivory Coast
		Curacao #2
		Ivory Coast #3 (3 pts)
		Ecuador #3 is eliminated
Ecuador beats Germany
	Germany #1
	Ivory Coast beats or ties Curacao:
		Ivory Coast #2
		Ecuador #3 (4 pts)
		Curacao $4 is eliminated
	Curacao beats Ivory Coast:
		Ecuador-Germany goal diff – Curacao-Ivory Coast goal diff < 5
			Ecuador #2
			Curacao #3 (4 pts)
		Ecuador-Germany goal diff – Curacao-Ivory Coast goal diff = 5
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals > 1
				Ecuador #2
				Curacao #4 (4 pts)
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals = 1
				Ecuador has less than 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					Ecuador #2
					Curacao #3 (4 pts)
				Ecuador has exactly 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					lots choose between Ecuador and Curacao  for #2 and #3 (4 pts)
				Ecuador has more than 2 more fair play points than Curacao in game 3
					Curacao #2
					Ecuador #3 (4 pts)
			Ecuador game 3 goals – Curacao game 3 goals < 1
				Curacao #2
				Ecuador #3 (4 pts)
		Germany-Ecuador goal diff – Ivory Coast-Curacao goal diff < 5
			Curacao #2
			Ecuador #3 (4 pts)
		Ivory Coast #4 is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group D Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group D Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

         pts ΔG GF Sport
USA       6  +5  6  -4
Australia 3   0  2  -4
Paraguay  3  -2  2  -10
Turkey    0  -3  0  -2

Summary

• USA wins the group, Turkey is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3^rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.

• USA.

  • USA wins the group.

• Australia

  • Australia advances on a win or tie.

  • Australia may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Paraguay

  • Paraguay advances on a win

  • Paraguay likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team

  • Paraguay may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Turkey

  • Turkey is eliminated

Complete breakdown:

USA beats Turkey or USA ties Turkey or Turkey beats USA:
	USA #1
	Australia beats Paraguay:
		Australia #2
		Paraguay #3 (3 pts)
	Australia ties Paraguay:
		Australia #2
		Paraguay #3 (4 pts)
	Paraguay beats Australia:
		Paraguay #2
		Australia #3 (3 pts)
	Turkey is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group C Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group C Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

      	pts ΔG GF Sport
Brazil	 4  +3  4  -3
Morocco	 4  +1  2  -1
Scotland 3   0  1  -4
Haiti 	 0  -4  0  -4

Summary

• Brazil and Morocco are basically fighting for first and second. Even in the rare chance they fall to 3^rd, they should qualify with 4 pts and a positive goal differential. Scotland wants to improve it’s current 3 point 3^rd place finish. Haiti is eliminated.

• Brazil.

  • Brazil wins the group with a win and either a Morocco tie or loss or Morocco doesn’t win by enough goals

  • Brazil wins the group on tie and a Morocco tie or loss.

  • Brazil advances on a win or tie.

  • Brazil likely advances as a 4 point 3^rd place on a loss.

• Morocco

  • Morocco wins the group with a win and a Brazil loss or tie or a win by enough goals.

  • Morocco advances on a win or tie.

  • Morocco likely advances as a 4 point 3^rd place on a loss.

• Scotland

  • Scotland wins the group with a win and a Morocco tie or loss.

  • Scotland advances on a win.

  • Scotland likely advances on a tie, either 2^nd place or 4 point 3^rd place.

  • Scotland may advance on a loss as a 4 point 3^rd place team .

• Haiti

  • Haiti is eliminated

Complete breakdown:

Brazil beats Scotland:
	Morocco beats Haiti:
		Morocco-Haiti goal diff - Brazil-Scotland goal diff < 2
			Brazil #1
			Morocco #2
		Morocco-Haiti goal diff - Brazil-Scotland goal diff = 2
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals < 2
				Brazil #1
				Morocco #2
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals = 2
				Morocco has less than 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					Morocco #1
					Brazil #2
				Morocco has exactly 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					lots choose between Morocco and Brazil  for #1 and #2
				Morocco has more than 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					Brazil #1
					Morocco #2
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals > 2
				Morocco #1
				Brazil #2
		Morocco-Haiti goal diff - Brazil-Scotland goal diff < 2
				Morocco #1
				Brazil #2
	Morocco ties Haiti:
		Brazil #1
		Morocco #2
	Haiti beats Morocco:
		Brazil #1
		Morocco #2
	Scotland #3 (3pts may be eliminated)
Brazil ties Scotland:
	Morocco beats Haiti:
		Morocco #1
		Brazil #2
	Morocco ties Haiti:
		Brazil #1
		Morocco #2
		Scotland #3 (4pt)
	Haiti beats Morocco:
		Brazil #1
		Hait beats Morocco by 1 goal
			Scotland scores less than one more goal that Morocco
				Morocco #2
				Scotland #3 (4pt)
			Scotland scores exactly one more goal that Morocco
				Morocco has less than 3 more fair play points than Scotland in game 3:
					Morocco #2
					Scotland #3 (4pt)
				Morocco has exactly 3 more fair play points than Scotland in game 3:
					lots choose between Morocco and Scotland for #2 and #3 (4pts)
				Morocco has more than 3 more fair play points than Scotland in game 3:
					Scotland #2
					Morroccco #3 (4pt)
			Scotland scores more than one more goal that Morocco
				Scotland #2
				Morroccco #3 (4pt)
		Hait beats Morocco by more than 1 goal
			Scotland #2
			Morroccco #3 (4pt)
Scotland beats Brazil:
	Morocco beats Haiti:
		Morocco #1
		Scotland #2
		Brazil #3 (4pts)
	Morocco ties Haiti:
		Scotland #1
		Morocco #2
		Brazil #3 (4pts)
	Haiti beats Morocco:
		Scotland #1
		Brazil-Scotland goal diff - Haiti-Morocco goal diff < 2
			Brazil #2
			Morocco #3 (4 pts)
		Brazil-Scotland goal diff - Haiti-Morocco goal diff = 2
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals < 2
				Brazil #2
				Morocco #3 (4 pts)
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals = 2
				Morocco has less than 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					Morocco #2
					Brazil #3 (4 pts)
				Morocco has exactly 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					lots choose between Morocco and Brazil  for #2 and #3 (4pts)
				Morocco has more than 2 more fair play points than Brazil in game 3
					Brazil #2
					Morocco #3 (4 pts)
			Morocco game 3 goals – Brazil game 3 goals > 2
				Morocco #2
				Brazil #3 (4 pts)
		Brazil-Scotland goal diff - Haiti-Morocco goal diff < 2
				Morocco #2
				Brazil #3 (4 pts)
Hait is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group B Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group B Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

               pts ΔG GF Sport
Canada  	4  +6  7  -3
Switzerland	4  +3  5  -2
Bosnia   	1  -3  2  -5
Qatar     	1  -6  1  -11

Summary

• For all intents and purposes, Canada and Switzerland are battling for the #1 and #2 seeds and Bosnia and Qatar are battling for the #3 seed and a chance to get into the playoffs.

• Canada.

  • Canada wins the group on a win or tie.

  • Canada advances as a second place team on a loss and a Qatari win or tie or a Bosnian win with less than 5 goals.

  • Canada still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team (Canada loss with a massive Bosnia win) with a large positive goal differential.

• Switzerland

  • Switzerland wins the group on a win.

  • Switzerland advances a second place team on a tie, or a loss and either a Bosnian win or a Qatari win with less than 4 goals

  • Switzerland still likely advances as a 4 pt 3^rd place team (Switzerland loss and a massive Qatar win) with a positive goal differential.

• Bosnia

  • Bosnia possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 4 point team and a slightly negative goal differential.

  • Bosnia is likely eliminated on a tie.

  • Bosnia is eliminated on a loss.

• Qatar

  • Qatar possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 4 point team and a large negative goal differential.

  • Qatar is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

Canada beats Switzerland:
	Canada #1
	Bosnia beats Qatar:
		Switzerland #2
		Bosnia #3 (4pt)
		Qatar is eliminated
	Bosnia ties Qatar:
		Switzerland #2
		Bosnia #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		Qatar #4 is eliminated
	Qatar beats Bosnia:
		Qatar-Bosnia goal diff + Canada-Switzerland goal diff < 9
			Switzerland #2
			Qatar #3 (4pts)
		Qatar-Bosnia goal diff + Canada-Switzerland goal diff = 9
			Qatar game 3 goals – Switzerland game 3 goals < 4
				Switzerland #2
				Qatar #3 (4pts)
			Qatar game 3 goals – Switzerland game 3 goals = 4
				Switzerland has less than 9 more fair play points than Qatar in game 3
					Switzerland #2
					Qatar #3 (4pts)
				Swizterland has exactly 9 more fair play points than Qatar in game 3
					lots choose between Switzerland and Qatar  for #2 and #3
				Switzerland has more than 9 more fair play points than Qatar in game 3
					Qatar #2
					Switzerland #3 (4pts)
			Qatar game 3 goals – Switzerland game 3 goals > 4
				Qatar #2
				Switzerland #3 (4pts)
		Qatar-Bosnia goal diff + Canada-Switzerland goal diff = 9
			Qatar #2
			Switzerland #3 (4pts)
		Bosnia is eliminated
Canada ties Switzerland:
	Canada #1
	Switzerland #2
	Bosnia beats Qatar:
		Bosnia #3 (4pts)
		Qatar is eliminated
	Bosnia ties Qatar:
		Bosnia #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		Qatar #4 is eliminated
	Qatar beats Bosnia:
		Qatar #3 (4pts)
		Bosnia is eliminated
Switzerland beats Canada
	Switzerland #1
	Bosnia beats Qatar:
		Bosnia-Qatar goal diff + Switzerland-Canada goal diff < 9
			Canada #2
			Bosnia #3 (4pts)
		Bosnia-Qatar goal diff + Switzerland-Canada goal diff = 9
			Bosnia game 3 goals – Canada game 3 goals < 5
				Canada #2
				Bosnia #3 (4pts)
			Bosnia game 3 goals – Canada game 3 goals = 5
				Canada has less than 2 more fair play points than Bosnia in game 3
					Canada #2
					Bosnia #3 (4pts)
				Canada has exactly 2 more fair play points than Bosnia in game 3
					lots choose between Canada and Bosnia  for #2 and #3
				Canada has more than 2 more fair play points than Bosnia in game 3
					Bosnia #2
					Canada #3 (4pts)
			Bosnia game 3 goals – Canada game 3 goals > 5
				Bosnia #2
				Canada #3 (4pts)
		Bosnia-Qatar goal diff + Switzerland-Canada goal diff = 9
			Bosnia #2
			Canada #3 (4pts)
		Qatar is eliminated
	Bosnia ties Qatar:
		Canada #2
		Bosnia #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		Qatar #4 is eliminated
	Qatarr beats Bosnia:
		Qatar #3 (4pt)
		Bosnia is eliminated

World Cup 2026 Group A Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group A Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

               pts ΔG GF Sport
Mexico     	6  +3  3  -5
South Korea	3   0  2  -3
Czechia   	1  -1  2  -1
South Africa 	1  -2  1  -12

Summary

• Mexico has already won the division, no matter what else happens.

• Mexico.

  • Mexico wins the group .

• South Korea

  • South Korea advances as #2 on a win.

  • South Korea advances as #2 on a tie, and a Czechia loss or tie

  • South Korea may advance on a loss and a Czechia loss or tie

  • South Korea is eliminated on a loss and a Czechia win..

• Czechia

  • Czechia advances on a win and a South Korea loss.

  • Czechia advances on a 2 or more goal win and a South Korea loss.

  • Czechia likely advances on a win and a South Korea tie.

  • Czechia is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• South Africa

  • South Aftrica advances on a win and a Czechia loss or tie.

  • South Africa likely advances on a win and a Czechia win.

  • South Africa is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Complete breakdown:

Mexico beats Czechia:
	Mexico #1
	South Korea beats South Africa:
		South Korea #2
		Czechia #3 (1pt probably eliminated)
		South Africa is eliminated
	South Korea ties South Africa:
		South Korea #2
		South Africa #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		Czechia #4 is eliminated
	South Africa beats South Korea:
		South Africa #2
		South Korea #3 (3pts may be eliminated)
		Czechia is eliminated
Mexico ties Czechia:
	Mexico #1
	South Korea beats South Africa:
		South Korea #2
		Czechia #3 (2pt probably eliminated)
		South Africa is eliminated
	South Korea ties South Africa:
		South Korea #2
		Czechia #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated)
		South Africa #4 is eliminated
	South Africa beats South Korea:
		South Africa #2
		South Korea #3 (3pts – may be eliminated)
		Czechia is eliminated
Czechia beats Mexico:
	Mexico #1
	South Korea beats South Africa:
		South Korea #2
		Czechia #3 (4pts)
		South Africa is eliminated
	South Korea ties South Africa:
		Czechia wins by 1 goals:
			South Korea scores more goals that Czechia:
				South Korea #2
				Czechia #3 (4 pts)
			South Korea scores the same number of goals as Czechia:
				Czechia has less than 2 more fair play points than South Korea in game 3:
					Czechia #2
					South Korea #3 (4 pts)
				Czechia has exactly 2 more fair play points than South Korea in game 3:
					lots choose between Czechia and South Korea  for #2 and #3
				Czechia has more than 2 more fair play points than South Korea in game 3
					South Korea #2
					Czechia #3 (4 pts)
			South Korea scores fewer goals that Czechia:
				Czechia #2
				South Korea #3 (4 pts)
		Czechia wins by more than 1 goal:
				Czechia #2
				South Korea #3 (4 pts)
		South Africa #4 is eliminated
	South Africa beats South Korea:
		Czechia #2
		South Africa #3 (4pts)
		South Koriea is eliminated

World Cup Groups Round 2

World Cup 2026 Round 2

Every year, after the second round of games complete, I like to work out all the remaining permutations for each group to see what each team need to do to win the group, secure a second place playoff seed, and this year, secure a reasonable chance at a third play playoff seed. That is because initially there are 3¹² permutations, not counting handling tie breakers. The best I can do is the general analysis found here. After round 1, the number of permutations reduces to 3⁸ (not counting tie breakers), still to many for exhaustive analysis, but enough to call out what certain teams need to do. After round 3, however, the number of permutations reduces to 9, with occasional need to examine tie breakers. This means I can exhaustively examine all the cases for each team in the group.

As of 3:00 p.m. Jun 25 PDT, The minimum points a 3^rd place team needs to qualify is 3 points. Currently a 4 point 3^rd place team with a -1 or better goal qualifies.

As of 7:00 p.m. Jun 26 PDT, any 3^rd place team with 4 points qualifies. So 9-4 points qualify, 2-0 points is eliminated.

As of 9:00 p.m. Jun 27 PDT, The group stage is over only one 3 point 3^rd place team qualified (Senegal). All 9-4 points qualify, and all 2-0 points were eliminated. Final results are in bold. You can see the knockout round chart at the FIFA website here

Each group by group analysis include 1) a current standing list with all the current tie breaker values, 2) an executive summary of what each team needs to do to reach their maximal goal. 3) exhaustive list of the results based on the various possibilities of each game. I’ll include the exectutive summary here and a link the the full group analysis here as teams complete their game 2.

Group A

• Mexico has already won the division, no matter what else happens.

• Mexico.

  • Mexico wins the group.

• South Korea

  • South Korea advances as #2 on a win.

  • South Korea advances as #2 on a tie, and a Czechia loss or tie

  • South Korea may did not advance on a loss and a Czechia loss or tie

  • South Korea is eliminated on a loss and a Czechia win..

• Czechia

  • Czechia advances on a win and a South Korea loss.

  • Czechia advances on a 2 or more goal win and a South Korea tie.

  • Czechia likely advances on a win and a South Korea win.

  • Czechia is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• South Africa

  • South Aftrica advances on a win and a Czechia loss or tie.

  • South Africa likely advances on a win and a Czechia win.

  • South Africa is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group B

• For all intents and purposes, Canada and Switzerland are battling for the #1 and #2 seeds and Bosnia and Qatar are battling for the #3 seed and a chance to get into the playoffs.

• Canada.

  • Canada wins the group on a win or tie.

  • Canada advances as a second place team on a loss and a Qatari win or tie or a Bosnian win with less than 5 goals.

  • Canada still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team (Canada loss with a massive Bosnia win) with a large positive goal differential.

• Switzerland

  • Switzerland wins the group on a win.

  • Switzerland advances a second place team on a tie, or a loss and either a Bosnian win or a Qatari win with less than 4 goals

  • Switzerland still likely advances as a 4 pt 3^rd place team (Switzerland loss and a massive Qatar win) with a positive goal differential.

• Bosnia

  • Bosnia possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 4 point team and a slightly negative goal differential.

  • Bosnia is likely eliminated on a tie.

  • Bosnia is eliminated on a loss.

• Qatar

  • Qatar possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 4 point team and a large negative goal differential.

  • Qatar is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group C

• Brazil and Morocco are basically fighting for first and second. Even in the rare chance they fall to 3^rd, they should qualify with 4 pts and a positive goal differential. Scotland wants to improve it’s current 3 point 3^rd place finish. Haiti is eliminated.

• Brazil.

  • Brazil wins the group with a win and either a Morocco tie or loss or Morocco doesn’t win by enough goals

  • Brazil wins the group on tie and a Morocco tie or loss.

  • Brazil advances on a win or tie.

  • Brazil likely advances as a 4 point 3^rd place on a loss.

• Morocco

  • Morocco wins the group with a win and a Brazil loss or tie or a win by enough goals.

  • Morocco advances on a win or tie.

  • Morocco likely advances as a 4 point 3^rd place on a loss.

• Scotland

  • Scotland wins the group with a win and a Morocco tie or loss.

  • Scotland advances on a win.

  • Scotland likely advances on a tie, either 2^nd place or 4 point 3^rd place.

  • Scotland may did not advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Haiti

  • Haiti is eliminated.

Full analysis here.

Group D

• USA wins the group, Turkey is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3^rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.

• USA.

  • USA wins the group.

• Australia

  • Australia advances on a win or tie.

  • Australia may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Paraguay

  • Paraguay advances on a win

  • Paraguay likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team

  • Paraguay may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Turkey

  • Turkey is eliminated.

Full analysis here.

Group E

• Germany wins the division. Ivory Coast can still be eliminated.

• Germany

  • Germany wins the division

• Ivory Coast

  • Ivory Coast advances in second place with a win or tie

  • Ivory Cost probably advances with a loss and an Ecuador loss or tie.

  • Ivory Coast is eliminated on a loss and and Ecuador win.

• Ecuador

  • Ecuador likely advances on a win.

  • Ecuador (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Curacao

  • Curacao likely advances on a win.

  • Curacao is (likely) eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group F

• Tunisia is eliminated. All the rest can win the group on a win and some help.

• Netherlands

  • Netherlands wins the group on a win and a Japan loss or tie or better goal differential than Japan.

  • Netherlands advances on a win or tie.

  • Netherlands likely advances on a loss.

• Japan

  • Japan wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie or better goal differential than Netherlands.

  • Japan advances on a win or tie.

  • Japan likely advances on a loss.

• Sweden

  • Sweden wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie.

  • Sweden advances on a win.

  • Sweden likely advances on a tie.

  • Sweden may advance on a loss.

• Tunisia

  • Tunisia is eliminated.

Full analysis here.

Group G

• Egypt basically wins the group on a win or tie. Iran and Belgium need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. New Zealand needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Egypt

  • Egypt wins the group on a win.

  • Egypt wins the group on a tie and a Belgium loss or tie or a better goal differential than Belgium (Egypt +2).

  • Egypt always advances on a tie.

  • Egypt advances as a second place team on a loss and a New Zealand win or tie.

  • Egypt still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team even with a loss and a Belgium win.

• Iran

  • Iran wins the group on a win and a Belgium loss or tie or Belgium or a better goal differential than Belgium.

  • Iran advances on a win.

  • Iran may did not advance on a tie

  • Iran is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Belgium

  • Belgium wins the group on a win and either a Egypt loss and a better goal differential than Iran or a Egypt tie and a better goal differential than 2.

  • Belgium advances on a win.

  • Belgium probably advances on a tie.

  • Belgium is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• New Zealand

  • New Zealand probably advances on a win.

  • New Zealand is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group H

• Spain basically wins the group on a win or tie. Uruguay and Cape Verde need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. Saudi Arabia needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Spain

  • Spain wins the group on a win.

  • Spain wins the group on a tie and a Cape Verde loss or tie or a better goal differential than Cape Verde (Spain +4).

  • Spain always advances on a tie.

  • Spain advances as a second place team on a loss and a Saudi Arabia win or tie.

  • Spain still probably advances as a 4 point 3^rd place team even with a loss and a Cape Verde win.

• Uruguay

  • Uruguay wins the group on a win and a Cape Verde loss or tie or Cape Verde or a better goal differential than Cape Verde.

  • Uruguay advances on a win.

  • Uruguay probably advances on a tie

  • Uruguay is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Cape Verde

  • Cape Verde wins the group on a win and a Spain loss and a better goal differential than Uruguay.

  • Cape Verde advances on a win Spain loss or tie.

  • Cape Verde probably advances on a tie.

  • Cape Verde is (probably) eliminated on a loss.

• Saudi Arabia

  • Saudi Arabia probably advances on a win.

  • Saudi Arabia is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group I

• France and Norway both advance, they play for #1 and #2. Senegal and Iraq play for a chance to advance. Both are eliminated on a loss or tie

• France.

  • France wins the group on a win or tie.

  • France advances as a second place team on a loss

• Norway

  • Norway wins the group on a win.

  • Norway advances a second place team on a loss or tie.

• Senegal

  • Senegal possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 3 point team and a slightly negative positive goal differential.

  • Senegal is eliminated on a loss or tie.

• Iraq

  • Iraq possibly advances on a win as a 3^rd place 3 point team and a large negative goal differential.

  • Iraq is eliminated on a loss or tie.

Full analysis here.

Group J

• Argentina wins the group, Jordan is eliminated. The only question left is who gets second place and now may points will the 3^rd place team have in an effort to qualify for the playoffs.

• Argentina.

  • Argentina wins the group.

• Austria

  • Austria advances on a win or tie.

  • Austria cannot advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Algeria

  • Algeria advances on a win

  • Algeria likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Algeria cannot advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Jordan

  • Jordan is eliminated.

Full analysis here.

Group K

• Despite the mathematical possibility of DR Congo taking the #2 position from Portugal, the goal differential causes this scenario extremely unlikely… thus its Columbia and Portugal fighting for #1 and #2 and DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting for #3 and #4.

• Columbia

  • Columbia wins the group on a win or tie.

  • Columbia advances on a loss as a #2 seed.

• Portugal

  • Portugal wins the group on a win

  • Portugal advances on a tie.

  • Portugal very likely advances on a loss.

• DR Congo

  • DR Congo likely advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • DR Congo is eliminated on a tie or loss.

• Uzbekistan

  • Uzbekistan probably advances on a win as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Uzbekistan is eliminated on a tie or loss.

Full analysis here.

Group L

• England and Ghana are battling for #1 and #2, but Croatia and sneek into either position with a win and help. Panama is Eliminated

• England

  • England wins the group on a win and a Ghana loss or tie or better goal diff than Ghana.

  • England wins the group on a tie and a Ghana loss or tie.

  • England advances on a win or tie.

  • England advances on a loss (4 point 3^rd place team)

• Ghana

  • Ghana wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie or better goal diff than England.

  • Ghana advances on a win or tie

  • Ghana advances on a loss (4 point 3^rd place team)

• Croatia

  • Croatia wins the group on a win and a England loss or tie.

  • Croatia advances on a win.

  • Croatia likely advances on a tie as a 4 point 3^rd place team.

  • Croatian may advance on a loss as a 3 point 3^rd place team.

• Panama

  • Panama is eliminated.

Full analysis here.

Third place team qualifying:

Last four are eliminated at the end. If there are 4 teams below any team, that team advances to the finals. Format: name(point, goal diff, goals scored, fair play points) group [ ordered by tie breakers ]

Groups left to finish: 0

1. DR Congo (4, +1, 4, -5) K

2. Sweden (4, 0, 7, -6) F

3. Ghana (4, 0, 4, -3) L

4. Ecuador (4, 0, 2, -5) E

5. Bosnia (4, -1, 5, -6) B

6. Algeria (4, -2, 5, -1) D

7. Paraguay (4, -2, 2, -2) D

8. Senegal (3, +2, 8, -2) I <==== advance, this line and above

9. Iran (3, 0, 3, -6) G <==== eliminated, this line and below

10. South Korea (3, -1, 2, -3) A

11. Scotland (3, -3, 1, -3) C

12. Uruguay (2, -1, 3, -5) H

With 3 more groups remaining here is what the last 3 3rd place teams not yet qualified need to make it into the knockout round:

• Iran: any of

  • Croatia loss to Ghana.
  • DR Conglo loss (by less than 7 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.
  • Algeria loss to Austria or Austria loss to Algeria (no tie).

• South Korea: any two of

  • Croatia loss to Ghana.
  • DR Conglo loss (by less than 6 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.
  • Algeria loss to Austria or Austria loss to Algeria by 2 or more goals (no tie).

• Scotland: all of

  • Croatia loss to Ghana by 3 or more goals.
  • DR Conglo loss (by less than 4 goals) or tie to Uzbekistan.
  • Algeria loss to Austria by 2 or more goals or Austria loss to Algeria by 4 or more goals (no tie).

The last 3 groups were not kind to the remaining 3 win teams. Only Senegal gets through. All the rest are eliminated.