World Cup 2026 Group F Game 3

World Cup 2026 Group F Game 3 Analysis

All round 2 analysis here.

           pts ΔG GF Sport
Netherlands 4  +4  7  -3
Japan       4  +4  6   0
Sweden      3   0  6  -3
Tunisia     0  -8  1   1

Summary

• Tunisia is eliminated. All the rest can win the group on a win and some help.

• Netherlands

  • Netherlands wins the group on a win and a Japan loss or tie or better goal differential than Japan.

  • Netherlands advances on a win or tie.

  • Netherlands likely advances on a loss.

• Japan

  • Japan wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie or better goal differential than Netherlands.

  • Japan advances on a win or tie.

  • Japan likely advances on a loss.

• Sweden

  • Sweden wins the group on a win and a Netherlands loss or tie.

  • Sweden advances on a win.

  • Sweden likely advances on a tie.

  • Sweden may advance on a loss.

• Tunisia

  • Tunisia is eliminated.

Complete breakdown:

Netherlands beats Tunisia:
	Japan beats Sweden:
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff > Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff = Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
				Netherlands #1
				Japan #2
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					Japan #1
					Netherlands #2
				Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #1 and #2
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Netherlands #1
				Japan #2
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
				Japan #1
				Netherlands #2
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff < Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Japan #1
			Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden
		Netherlands #1
		Japan #2
		Sweden #3 (4pts)
	Sweden beats Japan
		Netherlands #1
		Sweden #2
		Japan #3 (4 pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.
Netherlands ties Tunisia:
	Japan beats Sweden
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
			Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Japan #1
				Netherlands #2
			Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #1 and #2
			Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
			Netherlands #1
			Japan #2
		Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
			Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (4pts)
	Sweden beats Japan
		Sweden #1
		Netherlands #2
		Japan #3 (4 pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.
Tunisia beats Netherlands:
	Japan beats Sweden
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (3 pts)
	Japan ties Sweden:
		Japan #1
		Netherlands #2
		Sweden #3 (4 pts)
	Sweden beats Japan:
		Sweden #1
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff > Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands #2
			Japan #3 (4pts)
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff = Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals > 1
				Netherlands #2
				Japan #3 (4 pts)
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals = 1
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					Japan #2
					Netherlands #3 (4 pts)
				Japan has exactly 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
					lots choose between Netherlands and Japan  for #2 and #3 (4 pts)
				Japan has less than 3 more fair play points than Netherlands in game 3
				Netherlands #2
				Japan #3 (4 pts)
			Netherlands game 3 goals – Japan game 3 goals < 1
				Japan #2
				Netherlands #3 (4pts)
		Netherlands-Tunisia goal diff < Japan-Sweden goal diff
			Japan #2
			Netherlands #3 (4pts)
	Tunisia #4 is eliminated.