World Cup 2026 Group G Game 3 Analysis
pts ΔG GF Sport Egypt 4 +2 4 -3 Iran 2 0 2 -2 Belgium 2 0 1 -7 New Zealand 1 -2 3 -2
Summary
Egypt basically wins the group on a win or tie. Iran and Belgium need a win or tie to advance. They are eliminated on a loss. New Zealand needs a win to advance, and is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Egypt
Egypt wins the group on a win.
Egypt wins the group on a tie and a Belgium loss or tie or a better goal differential than Belgium (Egypt +2).
Egypt always advances on a tie.
Egypt advances as a second place team on a loss and a New Zealand win or tie.
Egypt still probably advances as a 4 point 3rd place team even with a loss and a Belgium win.
Iran
Iran wins the group on a win and a Belgium loss or tie or Belgium or a better goal differential than Belgium.
Iran advances on a win.
Iran probably advances on a tie
Iran is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
Belgium
Belgium wins the group on a win and a Egypt loss and a better goal differential than Iran.
Belgium advances on a win Egypt loss or tie.
Belgium probably advances on a tie.
Belgium is (probably) eliminated on a loss.
New Zealand
New Zealand probably advances on a win.
New Zealand is eliminated on a loss or tie.
Complete breakdown:
Egypt beats Iran: Egypt #1 Belgium beats New Zealand, Belgium ties New Zealand: Belgium #2 Iran #3 (2pt – probably eliminated) New Zealand #4 is eliminated New Zealand beats Belgium: New Zealand #2 Iran and Belgium #3 (2 pts – probably eliminated) and #4 (eliminated) depending on tie breakers (but both positions is an elimination position. Egypt Ties Iran: Belgium beats New Zealand: Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff < 2 Egypt #1 Belgium #2 Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff = 2 Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals < 3 Egypt #1 Belgium #2 Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals = 3 Egypt has less than 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Egypt #1 Belgium #2 Egypt has exactly 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 lots choose between Egypt and Belgium for #1 and #2 Egypt has more than 4 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Belgium #1 Egypt #2 Belgium game 3 goals – Egypt game 3 goals > 3 Belgium #1 Egypt #2 Belgium-New Zealand goal diff - Egypt-Iran goal diff > 2 Belgium #1 Egypt #2 Iran #3 (3 pts) New Zealand #4 is eliminated Belgium ties New Zealand: Egypt #1 Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1 Iran #2 Belgium #3 (3pts) Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1 Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Iran #2 Belgium #3 (3 pts) Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 lots choose between Iran and Belgium for #2 and #3 (3 pts) Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Belgium #2 Iran #3 (3 pts) Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1 Belgium #2 Iran #3 (3pts) New Zealand #4 is eliminated New Zealand beats Belgium: Egypt #1 New Zealand #2 Iran #3 (3 pts) Belgium #4 is eliminated. Iran beats Egypt: Belgium beats New Zealand Belgium-New Zealand goal diff < Iran – Egypt goal diff Iran #1 Belgium #2 Belgium-New Zealand goal diff = Iran – Egypt goal diff Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals < 1 Iran #1 Belgium #2 Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals = 1 Iran has less than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Iran #1 Belgium #2 Iran has exactly 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 lots choose between Iran and Belgium for #1 and #2 Iran has more than 5 more fair play points than Belgium in game 3 Belgium #1 Iran #2 Belgium game 3 goals – Iran game 3 goals > 1 Belgium #1 Iran #2 Belgium-New Zealand goal diff > Iran – Egypt goal diff Belgium #1 Iran #2 Egypt #3 (4 pts) New Zealand #4 is eliminated Belgium ties New Zealand: Iran #1 Egypt #2 Belgium #3 (3 pts) New Zealand #4 is eliminated New Zealand beats Belgium: Iran #1 Egypt #2 New Zealand #3 (4 pts) New Zealand-Belgium goal diff - Iran–Egypt goal diff = 4 Belgium #4 is eliminated.
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