World Cup Groups

FIFA Group Play

On the eve of the World Cup, do you wonder what your team needs to do to get into the knockout round? Here’s the generic analysis for what it takes to advance out of the group stage.

Generic Analysis: 4 team group.

In many FIFA tournaments, including the World Cup, a set of 4 team groups are used to seed the playoff portion of the tournament, with the top 2 teams in the group advancing to the playoffs while the bottom 2 teams are eliminated from the tournament. Each of the 4 teams plays the other team once. 3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, and 0 points for a loss. If two or more teams are tied in the standings, the following tie breakers are used:

1. goal difference in all games.
2. total goals scored in all games.
3. head to head games: The points from just the games of the tied teams in question.
4. head to head point differential
5. head to head total goals scored.
6. fair play points (yellow cards=-1, indirect red cards=-3, direct red card=-4,yellow card followed by a direct red card=-5).
7. Drawing lots.

If head to head were first, then the analysis would be simpler. As such we start with head to head as the first tie breaker.

You win your first two games

If you win your first 2 games, there is only one scenario where you haven’t already clinched a tournament seed: A three way tie for first. This is because 1) you already have 6 points. 2) each of the teams you beat could score, at max, 6 points, 3) you have a direct head to head win over both teams, and each of those teams must play each other, so only one can possibly get 6 points. In that scenario, the only way you have not clinched a tournament slot is if the team you play third has won one and lost one game. In that case you could still be eliminated if you loose, and the team that beat the team you play third wins, and both of those teams beat you in the tie breakers.

You loose your first two games

Conversely if you loose your first 2 games, there is only one scenario where you haven’t already been eliminated: a three way tie for last. This is because 1) the max you points you can get is 3, and 2) each of the teams you lost to already has at least 3 points, and 3) you loose the head to head tie breaker with both of those teams. Your only hope is the the team you play third has won one and lost one game. In that case you can still get to the second spot by winning your game, hoping the team with 2 wins also wins it’s third game. You then have to win the tie breakers.

This analysis actually holds if you win any 2 games or loose any 2 games. Your only hope to advance is tie breakers.

This analysis has ignored ties. Any ties will make three-ways impossible, If you win 2 and tie, you advance. If you loose 2 and tie you don’t.

Tiebreakers

Now let’s see what happens if you take into account the real tie breakers. Looking at the 2 win scenario again. Our one exception to 2 wins advance is the case of a three way 2 win tie. It turns out that is also the only scenario that a 2 win team can’t advance in the current tie breaker scenario. That’s because if there are 2 2-win teams, then the most points the next place team can have is 6 (the 3-way tie scenario).

Conversely if you loose 2 games, the only way you advance is the 3-way tie for last.

So if you win one and loose one, you will be eliminated on a loss and advance on a win (barring the 3 way-ties, in which case the tie breakers come into play).

So how does ties affect the analysis?

Well one win and one tie means you advance on a win.

One loss and one tie means you are eliminated with a loss.

So we’ve covered:

• 3 wins: team advances as the #1 seed.
• 2 wins, one tie: team advances, likely as the #1 seed (only #2 seed in the case of a tie for first).
• 2 wins, one loss: team likely advances, failing to do so only on a 3-way tie for first and losing the tie breakers to the other two teams.
• 1 win, two losses: team likely fails to advance except in the case of a 3-way tie for second, and only if that team wins the tie breakers.
• 1 tie, two losses: team fails to advance
• 3 losses: team fails to advance

Mulitple tie scenarios

That leaves what happens in the cases of

1) one win, 2 ties.

This gives you 5 points. The max points left for the other three games is 9. If the team you beat wins both if it’s games, it gets 6 points. That leaves 3 for the other two teams for a total 4 for them. If the team you beat fails to win both it’s games, you beat that team out in points. That leaves the other two teams. The worst case is the other two teams beat the same team you beat. Now you have 5, they each have 4 plus they play each other. The result would be either one wins, in which case you take second behind the winning team, or they tie, which leaves a three-way tie for first. You only fail to advance on the tie breaker. So one win 2 ties is like 2 wins one loss, likely, but not guarrenteed advance.

2) one win, one tie and one loss.

This one is trickier. It depends heavily on what else is going on in the group. Below the teams are:

Team you beat: TYB

Team you tied: TYT

Team you lost to: TYL

Scenario 1: loss to a dominant group member (wins all their games)

TYL: 9 points

You: 4 points

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 3, TYT 1

TYT wins: TYB 0, TYT 4

tie : TYB 1, TYT 2

If you lost to a dominate group member that wins all it’s games, you are still likely to advance, only failing to do so in the case you tie the team you tied and lose the tie breaker.

Scenario 2: loss to the cream puff group member.

TYL: 3 points

You: 4 points

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 6, TYT 4

TYT wins: TYB 3, TYT 7

tie: TYB 4, TYT 5

Again, the worst you can to is a two way tie (though it’s more likely in this case) and you advance or are eliminated on the tie breaker:

Scenario 3: loss to a team that ties the rest of it’s games

TYL: 5 points

You: 4 points

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 4 points, TYT 2 points

TYT wins: TYB 1 point, TYT 5 points

tied: TYB 2 points, TYT 3 points

This time you can be eliminated outright, one rare case you advance outright, or one case you need to win a tie breaker to advance.

Scenario 4 : loss to a team that only gets one more win.

TYL: 6 points

You: 4 points

TYB beats the TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 6 points TYT 1 point

TYT wins: TYB 3 points TYT 4 points

tie: TYB 4 points TYT 2 points

TYT beats the TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB: TYB 3 points TYT 4 points

TYT: TYB 0 points TYT 7 points

tie: TYB 1 point TYT 5 points

No case you advance outright, several cases you could advance on tie breakers, several cases you are eliminated outright.

Scenario 5: loss to a team that gets one more win and one tie

TYL: 7 points

You: 4 points

TYB ties TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 4 points TYT 1 points

TYT wins: TYB 1 points TYT 4 points

tie: TYB 2 points TYT 2 points

TYT ties TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 3 points TYT 2 points

TYT wins: TYB 0 point TYT 5 points

tie: TYB 1 points TYT 3 points

In many cases you advance outright, several you could advance on tie breakers, one case you are eliminated outright.

Scenario 6: loss to a team that gets only one tie

TYL: 4 points

You: 4 points

TYB beats TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 6 points TYT 2 points

TYT wins: TYB 3 points TYT 5 points

tie: TYB 4 points TYT 3 points

TYT beats TYL:

TYB vs TYT:

TYB wins: TYB 4 points TYT 4 points

TYT wins: TYB 1 point TYT 7 points

tie: TYB 2 points TYT 5 points

All cases depends on the tie breakers to determine if you advance or are eliminated.

Summary: a couple of cases you can be eliminated outright. Mostly advancing depends on tie breakers.

3) one loss, two ties.

You only have 2 points and one other team (the one you lost to) has 3. If any other team wins a game you are eliminated. If any team gets 3 ties, you are eliminated. In one rare case, where the team you lost to wins all it’s games, it is possible to get a three-way tie for second and try to get in on tie breakers (the other three teams tie all their games)

4) three ties. If you have three ties, then each of your other opponents have at least one point. If any two of them win one of the remaining three games, you are eliminated. You advance in the following cases:

Remaining 3 game: two wins (same team) one tie

You fight the tie breakers to advance in the following case:

Remaining 3 games: one win, two ties

Remaining 3 games: three ties

All other cases you are eliminated.

Final results:

So from this analysis, your goal in the first two games is to get two wins or a win and a tie. If you get two losses you are almost certainly eliminated. You can advance with as little as one win, one loss, and one tie. One wins and two ties are usually as good as two wins and a loss.

At the end of the second game for each group, I’ll post the final requirements for each team to advance to the knockout round.